ludic fallacy

The ludic fallacy occurs when someone presumes that what would be true under controlled conditions, such as a game, computer model, or research lab, will be true in the world outside of those controlled conditions.


Here is an example:


Magistrate: "Those with the brightest minds and deftest hands have tried for years to untie the large knot in this rope, and all have failed. I therefore believe it will never be loosened." Alexander (heaves his sword and brings it down through the knot): "There."


The magistrate presumed that Alexander would abide by the "rules of the game" and only use his fingers to try loosening the knot. Alexander violated custom (but not the law) by using his sword.



Here is another example:

Dr. Genius and Plumber Jane watch Albert flip a coin 50 times, and they see it come up heads every time. Albert says,"This is a fair coin. How many times do you think it will come up tails in the next ten flips?" Dr. Genius says, "Since it is a fair coin, past results have no bearing on future occurrences, so odds are, it will be tails five of the next ten times." Jane says, "I refuse to believe it is a fair coin. I say it will come up tails zero times in the next ten flips."


Who do you think is right? If it were a truly fair coin, Dr. Genius would be right. But that is not what Jane thinks is happening. Essentially, Jane suspects that Dr. Genius is committing the ludic fallacy.

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