The New York Times
While many industry watchers have argued that artificial intelligence will cause the fortunes of the Magnificent 7 to soar, another dynamic is at play: Investors see these companies as a safe bet and have thus stopped demanding significant immediate returns...
How have the managers of these companies responded to this massive influx of cheap money?...
From a practical standpoint, what they seem to have done is unleash a remarkable torrent of spending on one another. In other words, they are eating themselves alive.
Mihir A. Desai presents a valid point about the circular nature of Big Tech investments and the potential risks associated with investors' overconfidence in these companies. However, the use of the ouroboros analogy to explain this dynamic is questionable, and Desai attacks a weakened version of the opposing argument favoring investment in tech companies.
1. questionable analogy • The text draws an analogy between the ouroboros and the financial actions of Big Tech companies, suggesting that they are "eating themselves alive."
The image of the ouroboros, a serpent eating its own tail... helps us understand the most significant financial puzzle of our day.
The author believes the tech industry resembles the ouroboros in its self-cannibalistic behavior, where Big Tech companies are investing heavily in each other and buying back their own shares, actions that may ultimately lead to diminishing returns. This analogy suggests that the industry is consuming its own resources in a cycle that could be unsustainable, much like the ouroboros consuming its own tail.
However, there are significant faults in this analogy. The ouroboros, by its nature, remains the same size or may even shrink as it consumes itself, symbolizing a closed, self-limiting cycle. In contrast, the tech industry has demonstrated consistent growth over decades, driven by innovation, expanding markets, and increasing demand for technology.
Also, the ouroboros, as a symbol, is self-contained and does not produce anything beyond itself, reflecting a cycle of self-consumption without external contribution or creation. In contrast, the tech industry is highly productive, consistently launching new products and services that not only fuel its own growth but also drive innovation and development across various other industries. This productive capability and external influence are key aspects of the tech industry that the ouroboros analogy fails to capture, further demonstrating why the analogy is faulty. The tech industry's role as a catalyst for broader economic growth and transformation starkly contrasts with the self-limiting and insular nature of the ouroboros.
2. weak man • - The author characterizes tech investment rationales as being based on "mythical and messianic belief."
And the self-cannibalization will reveal itself to be not just a mediocre investment but also a shaky bet on an illusion propagated by a mythical and messianic belief in technology.
Rather than engaging with stronger arguments for tech investment such as actual revenue growth, market dominance, innovation capabilities, or concrete technological advances, the author reduces the tech investment thesis to quasi-religious faith. He thereby attacks a weaker version of the bull case than is warranted.
Note that there being one or more apparent fallacies in the arguments presented in this article does not mean that every argument the arguer made was fallacious, nor does it mean there are not other arguments in existence for the same or similar position that are logically valid. Also note that checking for fallacies is not the same as verification of the premises the arguer starts from, such as facts that the arguer asserts or principles that the arguer assumes as the foundation for constructing arguments. For more about this, see our 'What is Fallacy Checking?'
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