Financial Times
America is in a race with itself to see which party can deglobalise faster. On Tuesday, Joe Biden slapped tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, including 100 per cent on electric vehicles. That's nothing, said Donald Trump, who promised 200 per cent tariffs on Chinese cars, plus 10 per cent on all imports from everywhere. Biden has more to come.
The author argues that Biden's tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly in the renewable energy sector, will harm American consumers, impede the country's transition to green energy, and escalate tensions with China, potentially leading to a complete economic "decoupling" – yet the author's reasoning relies on a false dichotomy that oversimplifies the complex trade dynamics between the two nations, and a mixing of the main economic issue being addressed with the author's view of possible election outcomes.
1. false dilemma • The author presents the costs of tariffs as being borne either by consumers or by importers, framing it as an either/or scenario.
As Biden knew in 2019 but appears to have forgotten, the costs of tariffs are borne by consumers not by importers.
In reality, the economic impacts of tariffs can be more complex and nuanced, potentially affecting various stakeholders along the supply chain, including producers, exporters, importers, retailers, and consumers. Additionally, the costs could be offset by other factors, such as increased domestic production.
By oversimplifying the issue into just two possibilities, the author may be committing a false dilemma fallacy by failing to consider or acknowledge other potential outcomes or ways in which the costs could be distributed or mitigated.
2. appeal to consequences • The author makes as assumption that Biden defeating Trump in the election is necessary to "save US democracy", and then uses this assumption to construct an appeal to consequences fallacy. The author is effectively arguing that he thinks Biden's recent protectionist economic policies are bad, but if they help him defeat Trump in the election, then that result will somehow redeem the (allegedly) bad policy.
If Biden's trade war helps to defeat Trump in November, hindsight will judge him kindly. The cost of imposing new taxes on the US middle class and delaying America's transition to green energy would have been outweighed by the benefit of saving US democracy.
While the author is entitled to his political views, framing the situation as Biden's actions being justified if they lead to "saving US democracy" from Trump is a bit hyperbolic and assumes negative consequences from a Trump victory without substantiating that claim. It distracts from objectively analyzing the pros and cons of Biden's specific trade policies by tying them to this broader, emotionally-charged narrative about the stakes of the election itself.
Note that there being one or more apparent fallacies in the arguments presented in this article does not mean that every argument the arguer made was fallacious, nor does it mean there are not other arguments in existence for the same or similar position that are logically valid. Also note that checking for fallacies is not the same as verification of the premises the arguer starts from, such as facts that the arguer asserts or principles that the arguer assumes as the foundation for constructing arguments. For more about this, see our 'What is Fallacy Checking?'
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