Krishnamoorthi ties America's future to Taiwan's

Analyzing the article

Newsweek

slippery slope

Our Analysis: 1 Fallacy

Earlier this year, I traveled to Taiwan... a thriving island democracy whose future will be closely bound up with our own...

Moving forward, we must redouble our efforts to strengthen the U.S.-Taiwan partnership...

If we do... I am confident that we, along with our close friends in Taiwan, will successfully uphold peace, deter aggression, and ensure American and Taiwanese prosperity for decades to come.

While highlighting Taiwan's role as a key US trade partner and democratic ally in the Indo-Pacific, the author's argument is undermined by the unsubstantiated assertion that not aiding Ukraine would directly lead China to invade Taiwan, overlooking the unique economic and geopolitical dynamics that could prevent such escalation.

1. slippery slope • This statement suggests that a lack of support for Ukraine would inevitably lead to Chinese aggression against Taiwan and others, without providing sufficient evidence for such a causal link:

...a failure by the United States to support Ukraine against Russia's brutal and unprovoked invasion would embolden the CCP to undertake similar aggression against Taiwan and others in the region.

There are several potential outcomes besides the slippery slope asserted by the author:

China could choose to continue applying economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan without resorting to military aggression, even if the US does not support Ukraine as strongly.
The US could find a middle ground in supporting Ukraine that does not embolden China to act against Taiwan, through careful diplomacy and calibrated aid.
Other regional powers or the international community could step in to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan, regardless of the US stance on Ukraine.
Internal political, economic or social factors within China could lead to a de-escalation of tensions with Taiwan, independent of the Ukraine situation.
Taiwan's continued strengthening of defensive capabilities and resolve could effectively deter China from attempting an invasion, even without direct US military intervention.
The deep economic ties between the US and Taiwan, with Taiwan being a top 10 US trade partner, could deter China from aggression as the US would be unlikely to risk those economic interests, regardless of its stance on Ukraine. (The US had $92 billion in imports from Taiwan last year compared to only $1 billion from Ukraine.)

The author oversimplifies a complex geopolitical situation by asserting a direct, inevitable link between US-Ukraine policy and Chinese aggression against Taiwan, when in reality there are many variables and potential alternative paths that could unfold.

References

Raja Krishnamoorthi (2024, Apr 5). Why America's Future Is Bound to Taiwan's Future.
https://www.newsweek.com/why-americas-future-bound-taiwans-future-opinion-1887434

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Disclaimer

Note that there being one or more apparent fallacies in the arguments presented in this article does not mean that every argument the arguer made was fallacious, nor does it mean there are not other arguments in existence for the same or similar position that are logically valid. Also note that checking for fallacies is not the same as verification of the premises the arguer starts from, such as facts that the arguer asserts or principles that the arguer assumes as the foundation for constructing arguments. For more about this, see our 'What is Fallacy Checking?'

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